Falsifiable

A falsifiable trading thesis states not only why you expect the trade to make sense, but what would have to happen for that reasoning to stop being valid. Without that second part, almost any outcome can be explained after the fact and the thesis becomes a story that cannot fail.

In Trade the Mechanics, falsifiability is built around a mechanical wrong point. If the market crosses that point or produces the structural behavior defined as invalidation, the original reason for the trade is gone. You do not need to debate whether price might come back later. The thesis that justified the entry has already been contradicted.

This is one of the clearest differences between analysis and storytelling. A story can keep changing to survive new information. A falsifiable thesis has boundaries. Those boundaries make the trade testable, manageable, and reviewable after the fact.